You were told crypto never sleeps. Turns out, it hibernates.
Let’s cut through the noise. The 200-day moving average? Broken. Venture capital interest? Ghosted. Altcoin bags? Heavier than your guilt after buying the top of Pepe AI DePIN v2. Welcome to April 2025: not quite the end, not quite a new beginning—just that awkward middle part where everyone pretends to be okay.
Crypto is down horrendously. Again. Shocking, we know.
Coinbase’s latest monthly outlook (you can read it from this link) drops the kind of truth bomb most influencers won’t touch: we’re already knee-deep in another crypto winter. No memes, no hopium, just a cool $650 billion sliced off the total market cap since December. If you’re wondering where your portfolio went—it’s right there, frozen alongside venture funding and your dreams of early retirement.
So, What the Hell Happened?
According to Coinbase Research (aka the sober voice in your favorite degenerate echo chamber), the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin is down 41% from its December 2024 high of $1.6 trillion to $950 billion. That’s not a dip—that’s a faceplant into the abyss.
Altcoins have been thrown off the cliff first, as usual. Bitcoin is still playing store-of-value cosplay, but even it couldn’t resist the gravitational pull of macro fears: tariffs, rate hikes, and the fact that AI-generated frog coins are apparently not a real asset class.
Meanwhile, VC funding? Down 50–60% from the 2021–2022 highs. Apparently, investors have finally realized that launching a token called $ZAP2MOON with a dog logo and a promise of “AI-integrated metaverse staking” doesn’t qualify as innovation. Who knew?
The 200-Day Moving Average Is Not Just a Line, It’s a Cliff
Both BTC and the COIN50 Index have fallen below their 200-day moving averages. In crypto terms, that’s like your ex removing you from their Close Friends story—it’s over, but you’re not sure when exactly the heartbreak began.
For Bitcoin, the bear cycle officially started in late March. For altcoins, the funeral was already underway by February. The COIN50 Index, which includes the top 50 tokens by market cap, has been sitting under its 200DMA longer than you’ve held onto that cursed $FLOKI bag.
This isn’t just some chart voodoo. The 200DMA has historically marked shifts in sentiment more reliably than any influencer’s “super cycle thesis.” And while Bitcoin only dropped less than 20%, the rest of the market said, “Hold my beer,” and nosedived harder than your favorite low-cap after a Binance listing rumor fades.
The Myth of the 20% Rule
Ah yes, the “20% down = bear market” rule. In crypto, that’s called Tuesday. Coinbase demolishes this lazy metric, reminding us that a 20% drop in Bitcoin is often just breakfast volatility.
Instead, they offer a more sophisticated approach: look at risk-adjusted performance (how far an asset deviates from its average behavior), or simply consult your favorite DeFi project’s Discord—if half the mods disappeared, you’re probably in a bear.
They also show that Bitcoin’s 76% crash from 2021 to 2022 was 3.5x the magnitude of the S&P 500’s 22% drop during the Fed’s hiking spree. Translation: when TradFi panics, crypto straight-up combusts.
Z-Scores and Depression Scores
Another indicator Coinbase uses is the z-score, which adjusts for volatility. Bitcoin’s 1.4 standard deviation drop in that 2021–2022 bear matched equities in risk terms, proving BTC isn’t as different as your permabull timeline suggests.
But here’s the kicker: z-scores are laggy. The model says we’ve been “neutral” since March, which is hilarious if you’ve watched your portfolio bleed daily like it owes the market something.
The irony? The z-score model stopped flashing “bull” back in February. Since then, everything else has looked like a horror show of “sideways” that feels suspiciously like “down only.”
Crypto Winter: Not Just a Metaphor
Let’s be clear. This isn’t a “healthy correction.” This is a total vibe shift.
- The COIN50 is in confirmed bear territory.
- VC firms are ghosting startups like a bad Tinder date.
- Bitcoin is playing the role of “boomer asset” while the rest of crypto is in full-blown existential crisis.
It’s not just the price action. It’s the energy. The Discords are quiet. The timelines are full of cope threads and bad engagement farming. The word “floor” gets thrown around like a prayer. And that’s exactly the point—when sentiment gets this toxic, a reset is coming. But not just yet.
The Bagholder’s Guide to Surviving April
What now? Coinbase says we might find a floor in late Q2, maybe heading into Q3. Until then, the vibes are grim. But if you’ve made it this far, you’re probably too stubborn to quit.
So let’s be honest about the playbook:
- Cut the Dead Weight: If your altcoin hasn’t posted a GitHub update since February, it’s not “undervalued”—it’s abandoned.
- Embrace Boredom: Real bear markets are boring. Survivors know the trick is doing nothing, aggressively.
- Relearn Risk: Crypto doesn’t reward diamond hands. It rewards well-timed apathy, followed by cautious engagement.
- Zoom Out. But Not Too Much: Yes, Bitcoin is still up from 2015. But you’re not in 2015. You’re here, and here sucks. Be real.
Final Thoughts: The Market Doesn’t Owe You a Comeback
Coinbase ends their note on a cautiously optimistic tone: defensive for now, but constructive for the back half of 2025. Sounds familiar, right? That’s because hope is cheap, but conviction isn’t.
This isn’t your first rodeo. The names change—DeFi becomes AI, NFTs become RWAs—but the cycle remains. Every bagholder eventually has to decide: are you still here because you believe, or because you have nowhere else to go?
Either way, congrats. You’re early… to the despair. And that, dear reader, is the most consistent alpha in this space.
Last words, just survive.
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